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📄 Abstract
Abstract: In this work, we address the problem of determining reliable policies in
reinforcement learning (RL), with a focus on optimization under uncertainty and
the need for performance guarantees. While classical RL algorithms aim at
maximizing the expected return, many real-world applications - such as routing,
resource allocation, or sequential decision-making under risk - require
strategies that ensure not only high average performance but also a guaranteed
probability of success. To this end, we propose a novel formulation in which
the objective is to maximize the probability that the cumulative return exceeds
a prescribed threshold. We demonstrate that this reliable RL problem can be
reformulated, via a state-augmented representation, into a standard RL problem,
thereby allowing the use of existing RL and deep RL algorithms without the need
for entirely new algorithmic frameworks. Theoretical results establish the
equivalence of the two formulations and show that reliable strategies can be
derived by appropriately adapting well-known methods such as Q-learning or
Dueling Double DQN. To illustrate the practical relevance of the approach, we
consider the problem of reliable routing, where the goal is not to minimize the
expected travel time but rather to maximize the probability of reaching the
destination within a given time budget. Numerical experiments confirm that the
proposed formulation leads to policies that effectively balance efficiency and
reliability, highlighting the potential of reliable RL for applications in
stochastic and safety-critical environments.
Submitted
October 20, 2025
Key Contributions
R2L introduces a novel formulation for Reinforcement Learning that focuses on maximizing the probability of exceeding a return threshold, providing performance guarantees. This 'reliable RL' problem is shown to be equivalent to a standard RL problem via a state-augmented representation, allowing existing RL algorithms to be used without modification, thus enabling risk-averse decision-making in critical applications.
Business Value
Enables the development of more robust and trustworthy AI systems for high-stakes applications where failure is costly, such as financial trading, critical infrastructure management, and autonomous systems, by providing quantifiable performance guarantees.